SPOILER ALERT: This story contains spoilers from “Through the Valley”, the second episode of “The Last of Us” Season 2, now streaming on Max.
Kaitlyn Dever delivered a chilling, emotionally devastating performance in Sunday night’s episode of HBO/Max’s “The Last of Us,” immediately propelling her into the center of the Emmy conversation. The acclaimed actress has been featured prominently in what is arguably the season’s most talked-about hour, and has industry insiders debating about her category placement ahead of the official submission deadline.
Variety has learned exclusively that Dever qualifies for the guest actress in a drama series category, as she appears in fewer than 50% of the season’s eligible episodes. However, a final decision has yet to be made. HBO/Max awards strategists, along with Dever’s team, are still weighing whether to submit her in guest actress, where she would compete against names like Catherine O’Hara, or pivot to the supporting drama actress category, which would place her alongside co-star Isabela Merced.
The second episode, titled “Through the Valley,” marks a shocking and emotionally brutal turning point in Joel’s story. During a snowstorm outside of Jackson, Wyoming, Joel (Pedro Pascal) saves Abby (Dever) from a horde of infected, only to be ambushed. In a moment drawn from the video game’s controversial sequel, Abby exacts vengeance on Joel for killing her father in the Season 1 finale. She shoots him in the leg, then beats him with a golf club before delivering a fatal blow to his neck as Ellie (Bella Ramsey) watches helplessly. The visceral sequence, led by Dever’s ferocity and precision, has already ignited fierce debate online and set the tone for the rest of the season.
Under Television Academy rules, a guest performer is defined as someone who appears in “less than 50% of all eligible episodes” of a given season. New rules introduced this year state, if an actor has previously been nominated or won in a lead or supporting category for the same series and role, they are no longer eligible for guest consideration. That has directly affected performers like Meryl Streep who appears in less than 50% of the episodes of the fourth season of Hulu’s “Only Murders in the Building.” However, if a performer qualifies as a guest, they may still elect to compete in a lead or supporting category instead.
In Dever’s case, the strategic choice may be pivotal. Her limited screen time could be more than offset by the emotional weight of her performance, as the memory of Abby’s actions is expected to ripple through the remaining episodes. History shows that impact, not episode count, can be what sways Emmy voters. In 1992, Christopher Lloyd won lead actor in a drama for a single-episode appearance in Disney Channel’s “Road to Avonlea,” beating out Kirk Douglas for “Tales from the Crypt” and Harrison Page for “Quantum Leap” — all of whom had appeared in only one episode each. That same year, Kate Nelligan was also nominated for a one-off performance, while Dana Delaney took home the prize for “China Beach.”
In 2023, Brian Cox submitted in the lead drama actor category and was ultimately nominated for the final season of “Succession,” despite his character dying in the third episode of the 10-episode season. Pedro Pascal now faces a similar dilemma, as his team weighs whether he should compete in lead or supporting for his portrayal of Joel Miller in “The Last of Us.”
If Dever competes in the supporting drama actress category, she will likely go head-to-head with other HBO/Max talent, including Merced, her co-star in “The Last of Us,” as well as Carrie Coon, Parker Posey, Leslie Bibb and Aimee Lou Wood from “The White Lotus.” Other potential contenders include Fiona Dourif and Katherine LaNasa from “The Pitt,” and Patricia Arquette and Dichen Lachman from “Severance.”
On the other hand, the guest drama actress race is, for now, less crowded. Top names in contention include Gwendoline Christie and Merritt Wever for “Severance,” and Hilary Swank for her role in “Yellowjackets.” A slot in this category could offer Dever a clearer path to victory.
Dever has long been considered one of the most compelling performers of her generation. She was Emmy-nominated in 2022 for her acclaimed turn as Betsy Mallum in Hulu’s opioid crisis drama “Dopesick,” earning additional Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations. This year, she also starred in and executive produced Netflix’s Australian limited series “Apple Cider Vinegar,” portraying controversial wellness influencer Belle Gibson.
Whether she lands in guest or supporting, Dever appears to be a near-lock for a nomination. Her chances of winning, however, may hinge on the strategic decision made by her team in the coming weeks.
The deadline for Emmy submissions is Thursday, May 8. The nomination voting window runs from June 12 to June 23, with official nominations set to be announced in July.
