Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture
The Brutalist (2024)
A24
Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct. 10, 2024): Steve McQueen’s “Blitz” opened the BFI London Film Festival and is off to the races with strong praise being shared for the Oscar winner’s World War II drama. Starring Saoirse Ronan and newcomer Elliott Heffernan, the large-scale epic will likely appeal to various branches of the Academy with solid performances and impressive technical merits.
As the Oscar race heats up, Hollywood is bracing for an intense, wide-open awards season. After its whirlwind tour through the Venice, Toronto, and New York Film Festivals, A24’s newly acquired historical epic “The Brutalist” has emerged as a potential heavyweight in this year’s Academy Awards lineup. Starring Adrien Brody in a career-redefining role as a Hungarian-born Jewish architect who survives the Holocaust and journeys to the U.S., the film screened in front of an influential audience at CAA on Sunday night. The room was filled with industry professionals, journalists, and Oscar winners like Cord Jefferson (“American Fiction”).
The film is undeniably an achievement and a marvel of epic storytelling, made all the more impressive because it was produced on a lean budget of just $10 million. Early buzz and reviews point to “The Brutalist” as a potential Oscar juggernaut, assuming A24 can effectively balance it with its other contenders — “Sing Sing” and “Queer” — and galvanize voters to embrace its hefty runtime.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited producers are not final and are subject to change.
** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.
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Image Credit: Focus Features And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Film 1 “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux, Valérie Schermann, Anthony Vacarello2 “The Brutalist” (A24)
Nick Gordon, D.J. Gugenheim, Andrew Lauren, Trevor Matthews, Andrew Morrison, Brian Young3 “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Lucy Fisher, David Franzoni, Michael Pruss, Ridley Scott, Douglas Wick4 “Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan5 “Conclave” (Focus Features)
Alice Dawson, Robert Harris, Juliette Howell, Michael Jackman, Tessa Ross6 “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Steve McQueen, Arnon Milchan, Yariv Milchan, Eric Fellner, Tim Bevan, Michael Schaefer7 “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Agustín Almodóvar, Esther García8 “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Fred Berger, Bob Bookman, Timothée Chalamet, Alan Gasmer, Alex Heineman, Peter Jaysen, James Mangold, Jeff Rosen9 “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Jason Blumenfeld, Peter Rice, Jason Reitman, GIl Kenan10 “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Mary Parent, Denis VilleneuveBest Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sundance Institute Next in Line
Rank Film 11 “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon) 12 “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics) 13 “Sing Sing” (A24) 14 “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) 15 “Inside Out 2” (Pixar) 16 “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) 17 “September 5” (Paramount Pictures) 18 “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) 19 “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) 20 “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment) Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Bleecker Street Other Contenders
Rank Film 21 “Maria” (Netflix) 22 “Here” (Sony Pictures) 23 “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) 24 “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) 25 “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) 26 “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) 27 “Queer” (A24) 28 “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow) 29 “Nosferatu” (Focus Features) 30 “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Paramount Also In Contention
Rank Film 31 “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures) 32 “The Substance” (Mubi) 33 “In the Summers” (Music Box Films) 34 “Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films) 35 “Babygirl” (A24) 36 “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.) 37 “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM) 38 “Bird” (Mubi) 39 “Juror No. 2” (Warner Bros.) 40 “The End” (Neon) Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Eligible Titles (Best Picture)
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures ** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
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More Information (Oscars: Best Picture)
Image Credit: FilmMagic 2024 category winner: “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.