Who will blink first? That is the question when it comes to which studio will resume distributing films in Russia after a three-year moratorium sparked by the country’s invasion of Ukraine.
The answer appears to be Lionsgate, which is planning to release the Ana de Armas-led “John Wick” spinoff “Ballerina” on June 5 through Russian distributor Atmosfera Kino. A Lionsgate spokesperson declined comment, though a person familiar with the matter told Variety that the studio is willing to “move forward in Russia on a case-by-case basis,” a policy shift attributed to the “passage of time” and that “sentiment has changed.”
The move comes with hopes that the major studios will follow Lionsgate amid declining international box office revenues and anticipation that a Russia-Ukraine détente will be reached given that U.S. President Donald Trump has prioritized the matter in the early days of his second term. Neither Marvel’s “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” nor Paramount’s “Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning,” which is aiming for a massive international turnout following its Cannes debut on Wednesday, are expected to be released in Russia; however, Universal is not planning on releasing “Jurassic World Rebirth” in the country.
“It seems like things are opening,” says one prolific producer in Cannes. “I ran into a lot of Russian buyers on the street yesterday. So they’re here and ready to do business.”
Following talks between U.S. and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia earlier this year, Trump announced he was “trying to do some economic development deals” with Moscow, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio touted the “extraordinary opportunities” awaiting American businesses in Russia once a peace deal with Ukraine is signed.
For Hollywood, such public posturing has opened the door to return to what was the world’s sixth-largest theatrical market before the war began. “All you have to do is see which way the wind is blowing here,” notes Schuyler Moore, a partner at law firm Greenberg Glusker.
In February 2022, the public posturing from the major studios was much different, with the MPA expressing its “strongest support for Ukraine’s vibrant creative community” on behalf of members Disney, Netflix, Paramount, Sony, Universal and Warner Bros. Those companies all announced that they had paused business with Russia. But over the ensuing years, some films, like Universal’s “Oppenheimer,” have received a quiet launch in the territory. (The Oscar winner earned $2.4 million there.)
Independent films never really stopped releasing in Russia, and many American sales companies continued to open movies in Russia throughout the war, including A24, Neon and FilmNation, typically working through third-party distributors based elsewhere in Europe. Neon’s best picture winner “Anora,” which includes Russian cast members and dialogue, debuted in the country last year and made nearly $3 million of its $57 million global haul there. That’s proven to be a lucrative business, with indie distributors scrambling to make up for the absence of Hollywood blockbusters in Russian cinemas in the wake of the studio pull-out.
“It’s been a gold rush for them. It’s been gangbusters,” says one knowledgeable source. “The pricing was super aggressive … It was the most exciting market for them for the past two years.”
Foreign films — driven by studio tentpoles — accounted for nearly three-quarters of box office earnings and generated $410.3 million in revenue in 2021, according to Maxim Ostry, editor-in-chief of trade magazine Booker’s Bulletin. Of the top 20 highest-grossing films that year, all but one were Hollywood exports, with a pair of Sony comic-book blockbusters — “Venom: Let There Be Carnage” ($32.4 million) and “Spider-Man: No Way Home” ($24.7 million) — leading the pack.
Pre-pandemic, those numbers surged even higher, with Hollywood releases generating nearly $1 billion in box office revenue in 2019, making Russia the top European market that year for American movies, according to Olga Zinyakova, president of the Karo cinema chain.
Even today, Russia still ranks among the top international markets for independent U.S. titles, such as Neon’s serial killer thriller “Longlegs,” which grossed $4.5 million there, second only to the U.K. globally; and A24’s Nicole Kidman-starring erotic drama “Babygirl,” which has raked in $3 million to date at the Russian box office, placing it behind only the Netherlands and the U.K.
With global box office still struggling to bounce back from the Hollywood strikes, and with the once booming Chinese market turning inward, the potential upside is hard to ignore. “From a box office standpoint, it would be a notable lift for the overall global market,” says Shawn Robbins, Fandango’s director of movie analytics. “For studios to potentially be able to lean on those former earnings again would be a significant development.”
One executive at a major studio calls the return to Russia “inevitable” and that exhibitors in the country have reached out about working together again but that no discussions about specific films have yet taken place. Most agree that it will take some time before there’s any return to normalcy.
Adds Zinyakova: “The market has evolved. Many viewers felt alienated by the studios’ abrupt exit, while Russian cinema used the opportunity to grow stronger.”