Netflix and Fernanda Torres Look Strong

The whiplash of the Oscar nominations rippled across Hollywood professionals, awards pundits, and elated enthusiasts of 2024’s best films and performances.

The most jaw-dropping — and welcomed — moment of nomination morning came from Walter Salles’ Brazilian drama, “I’m Still Here,” which landed three major nominations: international feature, best actress for Fernanda Torres, and best picture. This marks the second consecutive year in which more than one non-English language movie received a best picture nomination, following 2023’s “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest” (although it’s the first time two international feature nominees have been recognized). It shows that the Golden Globes (at least their winners) still matter.

After Torres won the Globe for best actress, triumphing over A-listers Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) and Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”), many Academy voters told Variety they were seeking out the film, with feedback being overwhelmingly positive. Torres’ steady appearances on late-night talk shows and her vocal, determined legion of social media supporters have only amplified her campaign. This raises the tantalizing question: Could Torres pull off a historic win?

The odds are complicated. Torres was not nominated for a SAG or BAFTA Award, meaning she will not face her competitors — Demi Moore (“The Substance”), Erivo, Mikey Madison (“Anora”), or Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”) — until Oscar night. Moore, the current frontrunner, has gained significant traction for her performance in the body-horror film. At the same time, Erivo’s portrayal of the green-skinned Elphaba in “Wicked” has become a cultural phenomenon and could look to duplicate the Tony win by Idina Menzel more than 20 years ago.

History and statistics are not on Torres’ side. Since the SAG Awards’ inception in 1995, only three actors have won an Oscar without at least receiving a SAG nomination: Marcia Gay Harden for “Pollock” (2000), Christoph Waltz for “Django Unchained” (2012), and Regina King for “If Beale Street Could Talk” (2018). All three were in supporting categories. Winning an acting Oscar without SAG and BAFTA nominations? Only Harden has achieved that. For Torres, a win would defy gravity.

Meanwhile, Netflix is undoubtedly celebrating after Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language musical “Emilia Perez” secured 13 nominations — the most ever for a non-English language film. Despite missing out on nods from the American Society of Cinematographers and Cinema Audio Society, the film still earned recognition for cinematography and sound. However, Selena Gomez, who was on the bubble to land a nom, was notably snubbed.

Leading the nominations is never a guaranteed path to victory. Since the best picture category expanded in 2009, the nomination leader has only won six times: “The Hurt Locker” (2009), “The King’s Speech” (2010), “Birdman” (2014), “The Shape of Water” (2017), “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022), and “Oppenheimer” (2023).

By traditional Oscar standards, “Emilia” and Sean Baker’s “Anora” seem to have the most potent shot at the best picture trophy (having key precursors like SAG ensemble and categories like editing and directing).

“Anora” has been the “model child” this awards season, hitting every major precursor without exceeding or falling short of expectations. However, Baker’s four individual nominations — best picture, directing, original screenplay, and editing — place him among an elite group of filmmakers, including Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”), Alfonso Cuarón (“Roma”), and Orson Welles (“Citizen Kane”). No easy feat.

Amazon MGM’s “Nickel Boys,” an experimental drama, surprised many by landing a best picture nomination despite being somewhat overlooked during the season. The film earned just one additional nod for adapted screenplay, co-written by director RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes. It was surprising that Jomo Fray’s breathtaking cinematography or Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor’s memorable turn didn’t make it in. However, its minimal recognition recalls other two-nomination movies such as “A Serious Man” (2009), “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” (2011), and “Women Talking” (2022), which has become a common occurrence in the expanded lineups.

Nonetheless, it was a loss for Amazon’s other contender, the sports drama “Challengers,” which was shut out completely, including original score for Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, who recently won the Golden Globe. The Academy’s Music Branch is notoriously unpredictable, and not every Globe win translates to Oscar attention. See composers Justin Hurwitz (“First Man”) and Alex Ebert (“All Is Lost”) for reference.

Some on social media have wondered how the adaptation of the Broadway musical “Wicked” was eligible for original score, especially considering the controversy of Hans Zimmer’s “Dune: Part Two” being deemed ineligible. The Academy’s rules stipulate that a score must comprise at least 35% of the film’s total music. With “Wicked” clocking in at 160 minutes, it required 56 minutes of original music. The film’s 11 songs total approximately 54 minutes, leaving plenty of room for Stephen Schwartz and John Powell’s score to qualify and make a lasting impression. Also, I’m sure being a legacy name that includes Schwartz’s nine prior nominations and three wins also played a role in swaying voters.

If “Wicked” is to remain viable in the best picture race, it has to be able to secure an above the line win, and that’s only Erivo and Grande. The last movie to win best picture without taking home at least directing, acting, or screenplay was Alfred Hitchcock’s “Rebecca” (1940), which won best picture and cinematography. The last film to win without a nomination for directing and screenplay? “Grand Hotel” (1932), and it was its only nomination.

Focus Features’ religious thriller “Conclave” took two critical hits when it missed noms for cinematography and directing. Under normal circumstances, this would seemingly end its best picture chances, but we do not live in normal times (did you see the Presidential Inauguration?). However, with eight noms overall, “Conclave” may still have a path forward, which must duplicate the “Argo” (2012) road, which won best picture, screenplay, and editing without a directing nomination.

There is also a tiny, albeit notable statistic that I’m watching. Ralph Fiennes finally landed his third career nom following “Schindler’s List” (1993) and “The English Patient” (1997), both of which won best picture. When you add his role in “The Hurt Locker” (2009), he’s currently in a 19-way tie for appearing in three best picture winners. If “Conclave” won, he would be the sole leader with four. Maybe he’s an Oscar-winning film’s good luck charm?

In the best actor category, Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”) is in a dead heat with Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”). Both films performed exceedingly well, with “A Complete Unknown” earning James Mangold a directing nom and “The Brutalist” able to secure additional love for editing and supporting actress for Felicity Jones.

In supporting actor, it appears to be a nice “Succession” reunion with frontrunner Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) and Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”). However, neither film received a best picture nomination, which is more of a blow to Culkin’s campaign. Four-timer Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”) is the only previous nominee in the category. He has not won his career statue yet and could be a dark horse, especially if his co-star Chalamet takes the lead actor prize. The pair winning would look similar to “Mystic River” (Sean Penn and Tim Robbins) and “Dallas Buyers Club” (Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto) in that case.

In supporting actress, Saldana appears to be the frontrunner following her Golden Globe win, looking to make history as the third Latina ever to win an acting Oscar, and first to do it for not playing Anita in “West Side Story.” The others were Rita Moreno from 1964 and Ariana DeBose from 2022’s version. Ariana Grande (“Wicked”) also poses a substantial challenge, especially if she can pick up Critics Choice and SAG during her run. In addition, her film nabbed an impressive 10 nominations, tied with 2021’s “Dune” as the most nominated movie not to receive one for best director.

The directing lineup encompasses all first-timers — Sean Baker (“Anora”), Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”), James Mangold (“A Complete Unknown”), Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”) and Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance”), a first since 1997 where James Cameron’s “Titanic” swept the ceremony. In fact, 13 of the 20 actors recognized their inaugural noms.

There were celebrations in diversity where four Latinos were nominated for acting — Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”), Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”), Monica Barbaro (“A Complete Unknown”) and Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”) — the most ever in history. Domingo is the second Black actor to be recognized for two consecutive years, following Denzel Washington. Moreover, EGOT hunter Cynthia Erivo is only the second Black woman to be nominated for best actress a second time, after Viola Davis. And if she completes her EGOT status, she will be the first actor to complete it on the Oscar stage.

So, what do the next 38 days look like before the ceremony?

While “Emilia Perez” is the best picture favorite, guild awards could shake up the race. The DGA Awards seem to favor “The Brutalist,” the SAG Awards may side with “Wicked,” and BAFTA Awards could lean toward “Conclave.” And when it comes to PGA? Who knows?

It was in 2015 when all the guilds went with different films, with “Spotlight” taking the Oscar with only a SAG victory. Even “Moonlight” (2016) was able to pull off the biggest upset of all-time with only a Golden Globe best picture (drama) and WGA Award for original screenplay (before it was moved to adapted for Oscar).

With the Oscar race more unpredictable than ever, all eyes are on the guilds and their ability to clarify — or further complicate and confuse — the narrative.

The first crack at the winners is below.

See all Academy Award predictions

Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars