Movie theaters haven’t exactly been bustling since the start of 2025 and the calendar year is about to turn in one of its most meagre frames yet. Even with two new wide releases — Paramount’s slapstick actioner “Novocaine” and Focus Features’ spy film “Black Bag” — exhibitors are in danger of a particularly beleaguered weekend, one that will likely see no feature at all grossing in the eight digits.
That hasn’t happened since February 2024, when Apple’s hopeful franchise starter “Argylle” crumbled in its second weekend. Whether or not any individual releases can get north of $10 million, the overall outlook remains dreary. The Feb. 7 Super Bowl weekend remains the lowest-grossing of 2025 in North America, when “Dog Man” led charts with $13 million and all releases totaled $55.8 million. This weekend seems likely to sink lower.
“Novocaine” has the edge for No. 1 for now, though “Black Bag” and last week’s “Mickey 17” aren’t far behind. The comedy, which is directed by Dan Berk and Robert Olsen and stars Jack Quaid as a banker-turned-vigilante unable to feel pain, earned $3.9 million across Friday and preview screenings from 3,365 locations and is eyeing an $8.5 million debut. Projections for a $10 million opening now seem beyond reach, though Saturday grosses will better indicate momentum.
At an $18 million production budget, the R-rated “Novocaine” wasn’t a colossal investment for Paramount. Positive reviews could portend a sustained theatrical run, but moviegoer pollster Cinema Score turned in a mixed “B” grade among ticketbuyers.
Meanwhile, Universal’s specialty label Focus is looking at third place with “Black Bag,” an R-rated thriller of marital and geopolitical espionage. Director Steven Soderbergh’s star-packed film, which features names like Cate Blanchett, Michael Fassbender and Pierce Brosnan, earned $2.8 million across Friday and previews from 2,705 theaters. The film cost $50 million to produce — hefty for Focus — and the hope will be that it can multiply well and be an overseas draw. Soderbergh has always drawn critical support, though “Black Bag” has received some of the filmmaker’s best reviews. Cinema Score is at a cooler “B” grade.
After getting No. 1 in its opening last weekend, Warner Bros.’ “Mickey 17” is expected to slide to second place, earning about $2.1 million on Friday. Rivals are projecting a 60% drop this weekend for director Bong Joon Ho’s interplanetary comedy, now looking to cross $33 million in its first 10 days of release — a disappointing return on what was a $118 million production. With global sales lagging too, the film won’t be able to reach profitability in theaters.
Disney’s “Captain America: Brave New World” is eyeing fourth place after earning another $1.5 million on Friday for a $181.4 million domestic total. Winding down its theatrical run in its fifth weekend of release, the comic book film is now passing “Ant-Man” ($180 million), “Thor” ($181 million) and “Black Widow” ($183 million) among Marvel Cinematic Universe entries. With “Thor: The Dark World” ($206 million) likely out of reach, that means “Brave New World” will finish as one of the lowest-grossing MCU installments, ranking at 28th out of 35. Marvel will hope to bounce back in the summer with “Thunderbolts*” and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps.”
Also opening this weekend, Ketchup Entertainment and Falling Forward Entertainment should round out the top five with “The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie” in 2,827 theaters. The animated title was originally produced for Warner Bros. Discovery’s now-retitled streaming service HBO Max, but was shopped to buyers in 2022 amid the company’s restructuring. The Ketchup release earned about $1 million on Friday and will hope to cross $3 million in its debut. Reviews are positive and Cinema Score is at a “B+.”
“The Last Supper” — not to be confused with Fathom Events’ upcoming April release of “The Chosen: Last Supper” (a multi-week theatrical rollout of Season 5 of 5&2 Studios’ biblical television series) — could crash the top five, playing in 1,575 locations. Released by Pinnacle Peaks Pictures, the film earned about $1 million on opening day. Cinema Score graded at an “A-.”
A24 is bowing “Opus,” a kooky horror send-up of celebrity cults starring Ayo Edebiri, in 1,764 theaters. It earned about $420,000 on Friday and will have to push to cross $1 million in its opening. The film received negative reviews out of its Sundance premiere — hardly the warm critical response A24 is accustomed to — and the middling “C+” grade on Cinema Score indicates general audiences aren’t sweetening the reputation either. Costs are lean for “Opus” at a production budget under $10 million.