The Oscar race is jam-packed with social media controversies, unexpected nominees and an awards-filled weekend colliding with the Super Bowl. As Critics Choice, DGA and PGA get set to weigh in, a late-breaking contender has shaken up the conversation: James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown.”
Initially eyed for a 2025 release, the Searchlight Pictures drama instead debuted in December. Now it’s making a bid for Oscar gold, and it could be the year’s ultimate spoiler — particularly since awards season darling “Emilia Pérez” has been engulfed in controversy over offensive tweets by its star Karla Sofía Gascón.
History suggests an upset is possible. Take the 2005 Academy Awards: Martin Scorsese’s Howard Hughes biopic “The Aviator” went in with 11 nominations, and the night looked to be a coronation. But Warner Bros. threw a curveball.
After a private screening in the fall, the studio fast-tracked Clint Eastwood’s boxing drama “Million Dollar Baby,” originally slated for the following year. The move paid off. Despite “The Aviator” winning five Oscars, “Million Dollar Baby” claimed best picture and three other statuettes.
Turning a late-season release into an Oscar juggernaut is no small feat, especially without a major film festival debut. The last December release to win best picture was “The Shape of Water” (2017), but it had premiered at Telluride.
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Timothée Chalamet and Monica Barbaro in A COMPLETE UNKNOWN. Photo Courtesy of Searchlight Pictures. © 2024 Searchlight Pictures All Rights Reserved.
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Does “A Complete Unknown” have a real shot?
One Oscar voter tells Variety, “There’s not a single movie this year I’ve loved more. It was like being at a Bob Dylan concert — and I’ve been to Dylan concerts. You just take it all in.”
In addition, amid political turmoil and just weeks after the devastating L.A. wildfires, voters may be drawn to the movie that uplifts them the most. Though many may feel that to be Universal Pictures’ blockbuster musical “Wicked,” equally compelling is Mangold’s vibrant and poetic look at one of the most consequential figures in rock history.
While “A Complete Unknown” has eight nominations, its Oscar fortunes may turn on whether this year’s race follows the trend of a picture/director split, where the top two prizes go to different films.
Brady Corbet is the presumed frontrunner for his historical epic “The Brutalist,” but his relative lack of industry recognition could be a hurdle.
Mangold, by contrast, is a Hollywood veteran. He directed the best picture-nominated “Ford v Ferrari” (2019) and made history when “Logan” (2017) became the first superhero film nominated for a major Oscar prize for adapted screenplay. That industry respect could work in his favor.
The film also plays as a quintessential boomer movie, resonating deeply with older Academy voters who see it as a throwback to classic Hollywood craftsmanship. And then there’s its star power: Timothée Chalamet, who portrays Dylan, recently hosted “Saturday Night Live” — a moment that added to the film’s visibility.
Ultimately, timing is everything. With PGA voting closed and DGA ballots due Friday, “A Complete Unknown” is gaining steam at the perfect moment. Could it crash the party in the final hours and take the night’s biggest prize? Don’t count out Mr. Tambourine Man.
The updated projected winners are below; the prediction pages will be available throughout the weekend.
See all Academy Award predictions
Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars
