How Will It Impact the BAFTAs?

The recently uncovered social media posts by “Emilia Pérez” star Karla Sofía Gascón in which she attacked, among various things — Islam, George Floyd and a more diverse Oscars — have thrown an unexpected wrench into the awards race.

Within hours of the historic tweets being resurfaced and translated into English, Gascón apologized, saying she was “deeply sorry.” Things spiraled further over the weekend, when the actress did an interview with CNN en Español, booked without Netflix’s involvement, and addressed the situation (once again) in an Instagram post.

But by then, awards soothes had already started rewriting their predictions, and Netflix’s French-made Spanish-language musical about a Mexican drug kingpin who undergoes gender-affirming surgery — previously an awards frontrunner, winning multiple Golden Globes and leading the Oscar nominations with 13 — was being scrubbed from lists.

Almost all the attention since has focused on how this new scandal could impact the Oscars, where Netflix was hoping “Emilia Pérez” would be the golden ticket to its first best picture win. But how much will the noise reverberate across the Atlantic, where the film goes into the BAFTAs on Feb. 16 and the France’s Cesar Awards on Feb. 28?

Traditionally, many controversies surrounding stars are contained within Hollywood and have much less impact overseas; what may be considered toxic in the U.S. often isn’t remotely elsewhere.

Kevin Spacey, Woody Allen and Johnny Depp, for instance, continue to be feted internationally. Even Roman Polanski had his last two movies, “An Officer and a Spy” and “The Palace,” world premiere at the Venice Film Festival. In France, where Polanski lives, “An Officer and a Spy” earned him a best director prize at the Cesar Awards in 2020, stirring a widespread uproar. But France started fully embracing the #MeToo movement in the last couple years and the Cesar Awards have set new guidelines to prevent any talent or filmmaker accused of sexual violence from entering the Cesar race.

In the entirely different case of “Emilia Perez,” French voters will likely be more forgiving that American ones due to the profile of Audiard as one of the country’s most celebrated directors. Gascón’s racist social media posts could be counter-balanced by Audiard’s track record as a progressive filmmaker whose movies have highlighted racism (“A Prophet”) and the struggle of refugees (“Dheepan”), among other social issues. And while the U.K. is certainly more aligned with the U.S. than most other countries in terms of sensibilities and sensitivities, there’s a feeling, at least among Brits, that Americans are more wrapped up in the “drama” than the art form, especially when it comes to voting.

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“I think BAFTA tends to look past the bullshit — they usually judge the films based on merit and don’t get caught up in the politics and the campaign of it all,” notes one London-based awards publicist. “Whereas for the Academy, they tend to move in herds and think it’s more than just the film — it’s about the timing and political maneuvering.”

As another seasoned campaign expert notes, the tweets by Gascon — while rightly condemned as abhorrent — are “more specific to the U.S.”

Let’s take for example her comments about George Floyd, in which she described him as a “drug addict swindler” in a long thread just days after a police officer killed him. The Black Lives Matter protests his death sparked became a global event, especially in the U.K., but as the awards strategist suggests, her attack on him “feels a lot more personal to Americans.”

There’s also a sense that British voters “don’t like to be told how to vote or what their own values are,” the strategist claims. “They don’t want to be told: You’re in the wrong if you vote for this person.”

But few believe Gascón’s tweets can be swept under the carpet and forgotten. “Even in the U.K., I don’t think they can be ignored,” says the campaigner. “I don’t know how people can just ignore that and go, ‘It’s fine!’”

But how could this influence where the individual BAFTA honors go on the night itself?

With final voting currently underway and closing on Feb. 11, despite its haul of 11 nominations, many awards watchers don’t view “Emilia Pérez” as a “lock” in any category.

It’s probably a stretch too far for the film to win best film or director when “Conclave” from Edward Berger — whose last film “All Quiet on the Western Front” cleaned up with nine BAFTAs — and Brady Corbet’s historical 215-minute epic “The Brutalist” feel like much more BAFTA-friendly options. Notably, the momentum behind Demi Moore’s work in “The Substance” had likely already pushed her ahead of Gascón for best actress.

Gascón’s co-star Zoe Saldaña is considered a favorite for best supporting actress. At the same time, the film itself is expected to take home the prize for film not in the English language.

One pundit suggests the fallout may push BAFTA voters — who often prefer homegrown talent anyway — toward local alternatives. If true, that could boost Felicity Jones or Isabella Rossellini as supporting actress and “Kneecap” for foreign language. “I just think it’s really hard to celebrate something that feels kind of untouchable at the moment,” they add. That said, Variety understands that Netflix still believes “Emilia Pérez” is a strong competitor in several categories.

Of course, many British Academy members may have already made their decisions, with the final round of BAFTA voting opening on Jan. 22. An insider explains that there is generally a rush of votes at the start from those who “just don’t want to forget,” but — in news that doesn’t help the “Emilia Pérez” team — there’s a “huge wave at the end — that last weekend is very important.”

While “Emilia Pérez” may appear to have lost its footing, anything can happen in an unpredictable awards race if the eruption has proved anything. At least in the next week, anyway.