As YouTube marks its 20th anniversary, the Google-owned video giant is the “new king of all media” — larger and more powerful than any other player in Hollywood — according to an influential Wall Street research firm. What’s more, it’s in a position to grow even bigger.
For the full year 2024, YouTube was already the second-largest media company by revenue at $54.2 billion, trailing only Disney, according to estimates by MoffettNathanson principal analyst Michael Nathanson. But in 2025, YouTube is poised to take the top spot, ahead of Disney (excluding Disney’s theme parks and product sales) — “making it not only the leader in engagement but revenue as well,” Nathanson wrote.
If YouTube were a standalone business, it would be worth $475 billion to $550 billion, or about 30% of Alphabet’s current valuation, MoffettNathanson estimated. That’s based on the firm’s analysis of enterprise value as a multiple of revenue in 2024 for Netflix (10.5x revenue), Meta (8.8x), Roku (2.4x), Warner Bros. Discovery (1.4x), Fox (1.3x) and Disney (1.3x). Nathanson also noted that in February 2025, for the second time in the past year, YouTube ranked as the largest aggregate TV content source in the U.S. according to Nielsen (based on viewing time), surpassing traditional TV giants like Disney, Fox Corp., Paramount Global, WBD and NBCUniversal, as well as streaming leader Netflix.
And YouTube has even more upside ahead if it successfully executes on a strategy to become “the central aggregator for all things professional video,” Nathanson wrote. The MoffettNathanson team’s analysis indicates that YouTube’s engagement on TV remains “significantly under-monetized” relative to its scaled reach and differentiated offering.
“YouTube has substantial runway for further growth — not just in monetization but also in expanding into new business segments, such as becoming the premier streaming aggregator,” Nathanson wrote. “If executed effectively, this could further widen the gap between YouTube and the other media players.”
In 2024, YouTube generated global ad revenue of $36.15 billion, up 15%. For the 12 months that ended September 2024, YouTube’s subscription revenue topped $15 billion, according to Google. That was generated by YouTube TV, the biggest internet-delivered live TV service in the U.S. with 8 million-plus customers; YouTube Premium, which provides ad-free videos and other perks; and YouTube Music Premium. This month YouTube announced that it now has more than 125 million subscribers for YouTube Music and Premium services, up from 100 million a year ago.
In 2025 and ahead, MoffettNathanson expects YouTube’s subscription revenue growth to continue to outpace advertising, driven primarily by subscriber additions. YouTube TV will have roughly 10% of the $85 billion pay-TV market in the U.S.; by the end of 2026, as traditional pay-TV distributors “continue to collapse, we believe that YouTube TV will emerge as the industry leader, which should help their economics in content negotiations while creating a pricing opportunity,” Nathanson wrote in the March 31 research note. The analyst recommended that YouTube TV “truly create a skinnier bundle” of broadcast, sports and news networks coupled with streaming platforms like Hulu, Paramount+, Peacock and Max.
Nathanson estimates that in 2024 YouTube generated $7.8 billion in operating income, with operating margin of 14%. This year the analyst projects operating income to grow to $10.2 billion with 16% margin. By 2027, YouTube is modeled to hit $13.8 billion in 2027 and with operating margin expanding to 18%, “primarily driven by improved subscription economics.”
Also in the note, Nathanson suggested that Google should “provide greater disclosure” on YouTube’s economics for investors. Google/Alphabet only “periodically” announce major milestones in YouTube’s revenue and engagement, he pointed out.
